Welcome back to the Madhive Political Pulse, our content series that focuses on the key CTV insights affecting this year's elections.
We've been tracking impressions for political ad campaigns on our platform, and the data tells an interesting story about the ebbs and flows of the season. While the election itself continues to be unpredictable, there are consistent throughlines in the advertising data that speak to the political strategies both parties are using to build a winning season.
Here's how CTV political advertising is shaping up — and what to expect in the coming weeks.
While it remains to be seen how Kamala Harris's candidacy impacts overall political CTV ad impressions, early indicators suggest that spending from her campaign will heat up after Labor Day weekend.
Either way, one thing is abundantly clear: inventory is getting more competitive.
According to our data, open market CPMs for political ads continue to increase, and the pace is picking up. Political CPMs grew by 14% in July, compared to just an 8.5% increase in June.
Rates are still lower than they were in the midterm election cycle in 2022, but the general trend is still parallel to what we’re seeing this season.
That means we can anticipate steady increases from here on out, culminating in the highest CPMs of the season during the first week of November.
Now that the primary season is all but over, the regions where we see the greatest number of CTV impressions speaks to the strategies that political candidates are taking to prepare for Election Day itself.
According to our data, about 1 in 5 of all political CTV ad impressions were delivered to the state of Pennsylvania in July, making this the second month in a row where the Keystone state came out on top. Given these trends, it’s no surprise that Kamala Harris started her campaign tour in Pennsylvania.
While not a swing state for the presidential race, Montana is hugely important at the senate level. In 2020, Biden lost to Trump in Montana but the state elected a democratic senator — a fairly unusual feat. As a result, there’s a lot of focus from both parties to either maintain or flip, which could have an impact on who controls the senate.
Florida has one of the latest primaries of the season, which is likely contributing to the state’s entry into our top 5. The state is decidedly red, and most democratic candidates have already been decided, so the late August primary will determine which Republicans are running in November.
Texas isn't a swing state for the presidential election, but there have been rumblings about how Democrats can be more competitive in the typically Republican state. Some groups are focused on grassroot strategies that work on a local level.
Last, but not least, Wisconsin is the #5 state for political CTV ad impressions in July, and for good reason. It's a swing state that was blue in 2020 and red in 2016; all eyes are on who can secure it in 2024. Harris is also making a scheduled stop here on her campaign tour.
While national stories loom large, sharp political strategizing will continue to happen on a local level, and we’ll be tracking the top players throughout the season.
Looking at the July data, Pennsylvania districts are nearly 50% of the list of districts with the most political CTV ad impressions. And Montana’s only two districts top the list as all eyes turn to the aforementioned senate race.
Here's a complete list of the top 20 districts with the most CTV political impressions.
Now that both presidential nominees have declared their running mates, and almost all down-ballot races have their candidates set, we’ll be keeping an eye on which races pull ahead in the data.
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